Pastoral Care
At-Risk Detection
Quick Summary: At-Risk Detection uses AI to analyze attendance, giving, and engagement patterns to identify members who may be struggling or disengaging—giving you the opportunity to reach out proactively rather than reactively.
Overview
People rarely announce when they're drifting from the church. A family going through a crisis may quietly stop attending. A longtime member facing financial hardship may reduce giving without saying why. A young adult questioning their faith may gradually disengage from groups.
By the time you notice someone's been gone for months, reconnecting becomes much harder. At-Risk Detection changes this by analyzing patterns across your congregation and alerting you to potential concerns early—when a pastoral conversation can make the biggest difference.
This isn't about surveillance or judgment. It's about caring well for the people God has entrusted to your church. The AI surfaces patterns that would take hours to spot manually, freeing you to focus on what matters: actual pastoral care.
Risk Indicators
The AI analyzes multiple signals to identify members who may need attention. No single factor triggers an alert—the system looks for patterns and combinations.
Attendance Changes
- Sudden drop in service attendance
- Stopped attending groups they were regular in
- Missing patterns (every other week → once a month → absent)
- Withdrew from serving roles
Giving Changes
- Significant decrease from established pattern
- Stopped recurring giving
- Giving stopped entirely after years of consistency
- (Treated with extra sensitivity)
Engagement Changes
- Stopped RSVPing to events they used to attend
- No longer opening church emails
- Withdrew from volunteer commitments
- Left a small group
Life Events
- Recent loss of family member (from care notes)
- Job loss or major life change mentioned
- Recent divorce or separation
- New parent (may need support adjusting)
How It Works
1. Continuous Analysis
The AI runs weekly, analyzing engagement patterns for all members. It establishes a baseline for each person—what's "normal" for Sarah might be very different from what's normal for John—and flags significant deviations.
2. Risk Scoring
Each flagged member receives a risk score from 0-100 based on the severity and combination of indicators. A score of 40+ triggers a "Monitor" status; 60+ triggers an "Alert" status; 80+ is "Urgent."
3. Alerts & Dashboard
Flagged members appear on the At-Risk Dashboard with their risk score, specific indicators, and a recommended action. Pastoral staff receive weekly email summaries or real-time notifications for urgent cases.
4. Action & Resolution
When you reach out to a flagged member, log the outcome. If the situation is resolved (they were just traveling, or you've connected them with support), mark it resolved. The AI learns from these outcomes to improve future predictions.
Using the At-Risk Dashboard
Dashboard Overview
Navigate to Pastoral Care → At-Risk to see all flagged members. The dashboard shows:
- Member name and photo
- Risk score and status (Monitor/Alert/Urgent)
- Primary indicators (why they were flagged)
- Days since last contact
- Quick actions: Dismiss, Assign, Add Note, Resolve
Taking Action
Click on any member to see their full profile, care history, and engagement timeline. From there you can:
- Assign: Delegate follow-up to another staff member
- Add Care Note: Log your outreach attempt or conversation
- Resolve: Mark as resolved with a reason (reconnected, traveling, transferred, etc.)
- Dismiss: Remove from dashboard if the flag isn't concerning
Advanced: Customizing Risk Thresholds
Adjust sensitivity based on your church's culture in Settings → Pastoral Care → At-Risk Detection:
- Attendance sensitivity: How many missed weeks triggers a flag
- Giving sensitivity: What percentage drop is significant
- Engagement weighting: How much weight to give each factor
- Exclude groups: Don't flag members of certain groups (e.g., snowbirds)
Start with defaults and adjust based on what you're seeing. Too many false positives? Raise thresholds. Missing people? Lower them.
Advanced: Notification Settings
Configure how and when you're notified:
- Weekly digest: Summary email every Monday with new flags
- Urgent alerts: Immediate notification for 80+ risk scores
- Dashboard only: No notifications, check dashboard manually
Each pastoral staff member can set their own preferences.
🤔 Ethical Considerations
At-Risk Detection is a powerful tool that requires wisdom and care:
- It's a starting point, not a verdict. A flag means "consider checking in," not "this person is definitely struggling." Many flags have innocent explanations.
- Approach with genuine care, not suspicion. "We noticed we haven't seen you lately and wanted to check in" is caring. "Our system flagged you" is creepy.
- Giving data is sensitive. Never mention giving changes in your outreach. If someone's giving dropped, they may be facing financial hardship—the last thing they need is feeling judged.
- Some people leave for good reasons. Not everyone who disengages needs to be "won back." Sometimes people transfer, move, or choose a different church. Respect their agency.
Best Practices
Review weekly
Schedule 30 minutes each week to review new flags with your pastoral team. Assign follow-ups and discuss patterns you're seeing.
Log outcomes
Always log what you learn from outreach. This helps the AI improve and gives you a record for future reference.
Look for patterns
If you're seeing the same indicators across multiple families, there may be a systemic issue—a struggling small group, a program that's not connecting, etc.
Celebrate wins
When early outreach helps someone through a hard season, that's worth celebrating. This is the tool working as intended.
Common Questions
Q: Do members know they're being tracked?
Members agree to data usage in your privacy policy, but they don't see individual risk scores or flags. The analysis happens behind the scenes to enable better care, not to create a "surveillance" feeling.
Q: Can I exclude certain people from analysis?
Yes. In a member's profile, you can mark them as "Exclude from at-risk analysis." Use this for snowbirds, members who've communicated a planned absence, or those with unusual circumstances.
Q: How accurate is the AI?
The AI identifies patterns, not certainties. Expect some false positives (people flagged who are fine) and occasional misses. It's a tool to augment pastoral instincts, not replace them. Over time, as you log outcomes, accuracy improves.
Q: What if I have a small church?
The AI needs sufficient data to establish baselines. For churches under 50 active members, you may see fewer or less accurate flags. The tool is most valuable for churches of 100+ where it's harder to notice individuals slipping away.